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Bain: 24% of online holiday shoppers plan to start with AI in 2026

Bain & Company expects more online holiday shoppers to begin with AI in 2026. In its September 3 forecast, 24% planned to start their shopping with an AI tool, compared with 17% in 2025. For retailers preparing gift pages, the finding makes the quality of the first product comparison worth attention.

Bain’s forecast draws on Consumer Lab research involving more than 1,100 consumers. The AI figure describes shopping intentions. It does not mean that AI will complete 24% of holiday orders or generate that share of retail revenue.

The same release forecasts 4.5% growth in U.S. retail sales during November and December, with higher prices accounting for more than half of that growth. That distinction matters when setting expectations: a larger dollar total does not imply an equivalent increase in the number of products sold.

A useful holiday page should answer the constraints in a real gift request. Take a gift request such as: “What is a good gift under $75 for someone who runs before sunrise?” A shopper comparing a reflective vest with a rechargeable light needs more than a seasonal headline. They need the current price, available sizes, battery or charging details where relevant, and a clear description of what the item does.

Build the answer from verified product facts. If a light includes a cable but requires a separate charger, state that. If a vest comes in multiple fits, link the size guide beside the selection. Avoid broad claims such as “perfect for every runner” when the information needed to judge suitability is available.

Delivery information needs similar care. Show how a customer can check the arrival estimate for their destination and chosen shipping service. A universal holiday cutoff can mislead shoppers when availability or location changes the promise. Keep gift-return terms easy to find, especially where they differ from the standard policy.

Start with products that already receive gift-related questions or holiday traffic. Improve the missing answers on those pages, then follow a product link from the recommendation through to the selected variant. The AI referral landing-page guide explains how to preserve the buying context when a shopper reaches the store.

Common questions

Does Bain’s 24% figure represent completed AI purchases?

No. It describes the share of online holiday shoppers who planned to begin with AI. An intention to use a tool does not establish a completed order.

Which gift-page information should a retailer review first?

Check current price, suitability, available variants, included accessories, delivery estimates and gift-return terms. Prioritize the details customers need to rule a product in or out.

Should retailers rebuild their entire holiday catalog around this survey?

Use it to inform focused improvements. Your own product questions, traffic and orders should determine which pages receive the most work.

Sources

Bain & Company: 2026 U.S. holiday retail forecast

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